Bosphorus & Dardanelles
البوسفور والدردنيل
Tension score and event line
Available on Analyst and above
What it is
Two Turkish straits linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara and onward to the Mediterranean, passing through the city of Istanbul itself. Transit is governed by the Montreux Convention.
What transits it
النصف الأول من ٢٠٢٥ · إدارة معلومات الطاقة الأمريكية (EIA)source
Why it moves price
The only maritime outlet for Russian, Kazakh and Azerbaijani crude exported from Black Sea ports. Its narrowness, congestion and passage through a dense city make delay routine — and delay here is measured in days and priced into freight.
Is there a bypass
Overland pipelines to Mediterranean ports, limited in capacity and unable to absorb a full diversion.
Tension is measured daily, not described
We track thirteen chokepoints and terminals, publish a daily tension score with its components and the reasoning behind each, and tie it to the prices that move with it.