Canal

Panama Canal

قناة بنما

Status now: Watch

Tension score and event line

Available on Analyst and above

What it is

A lock canal linking the Atlantic to the Pacific across Panama. It runs on fresh water from Gatun Lake, so the lake level caps both the number of transits and the permitted draught.

What transits it

2.3
million barrels per day of oil and liquids

النصف الأول من ٢٠٢٥ · إدارة معلومات الطاقة الأمريكية (EIA)source

Why it moves price

The route for US Gulf Coast LNG and refined products heading to Asia. It is the one chokepoint constrained by weather rather than politics: drought lowers the lake, transits are cut, and cargoes reroute the long way around South America or via Suez.

Is there a bypass

Around Cape Horn, or eastward via Suez — both adding weeks.

Tension is measured daily, not described

We track thirteen chokepoints and terminals, publish a daily tension score with its components and the reasoning behind each, and tie it to the prices that move with it.