Black Sea
البحر الأسود
Updated 1 Sept 2026
What it is
The export outlet for Russia and Kazakhstan via Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal — roughly 2 million barrels a day of crude and products. Flow then passes the Bosphorus into the Mediterranean.
What transits it
شهري · تقديرات EIA وتتبّع الناقلات
Why it moves price
It is where the Russia–Ukraine war touches oil flows directly: strikes on port and refinery infrastructure, drones against tankers, shadow-fleet sanctions enforcement, and the grain corridor. Any escalation lifts war-risk insurance premiums and reroutes shipping.
Is there a bypass
Baltic ports (Primorsk, Ust-Luga), the Druzhba pipeline overland, and ESPO / Kozmino to Asia.
Tension is measured daily, not described
We track thirteen chokepoints and terminals, publish a daily tension score with its components and the reasoning behind each, and tie it to the prices that move with it.