Bab el-Mandeb
باب المندب
Tension score and event line
Available on Analyst and above
What it is
A strait between Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — the southern gateway to the Suez route.
What transits it
النصف الأول من ٢٠٢٥ · إدارة معلومات الطاقة الأمريكية (EIA)source
Why it moves price
Its state determines whether the Suez route is usable at all: a tanker that cannot pass Bab el-Mandeb will never reach Suez. Transit fell by more than half between 2023 and 2024 as vessels rerouted around the Cape — the clearest recent proof that risk alone, with no formal closure, is enough to redraw trade flows.
Is there a bypass
The Cape of Good Hope, which is what most vessels diverting from the Red Sea actually chose.
Tension is measured daily, not described
We track thirteen chokepoints and terminals, publish a daily tension score with its components and the reasoning behind each, and tie it to the prices that move with it.